Tennessee Soccer Stats | Results & Team Analytics | June 2026
Biggest Upsets
How often does the bigger school actually win, and which underdogs threw the form book out entirely? The most improbable results in the database, with the ELO swing each one caused.
An upset only means something if you know what was supposed to happen. So before the highlight reel, a baseline: when a bigger-classification school plays a smaller one (staying inside the same division, because Division I and Division II don't play by the same rules), how often does size actually win out?
The Baseline: Does Size Win?
Win rate of the larger-classification team in cross-class games, within a division
Bigger-Class Win Rate by Matchup
Higher bar = the bigger school wins more often · dashed line is a coin flip · hover for sample size
Bigger helps, but it is no guarantee. The largest public schools (3A) beat the smallest (1A) about 72% of the time, which means the little school still wins better than one game in four. The clearest size advantage in the state is in Division II, where the AA privates beat the A privates roughly three times in four. Everything below is what happens when that baseline breaks.
The Most Improbable Wins
Ranked by the winner's pre-game ELO win probability — the longer the odds, the bigger the shock
Last Season's Shockers
The biggest upsets of the 2025-26 season
Cinderellas
The biggest surprise in each classification's 2025-26 state tournament · click a row for the program's five-year ELO arc
What actually predicts a strong program — and what doesn't.
Sources
Win probabilities from pre-game ELO in the Tennessee Soccer Stats game log; classifications from our school registry (current cycle, used as the size tier); state-tournament results from the TSSAA bracket. Featured upsets are limited to one- to three-goal results, since a heavy-margin "upset" usually reflects a stale rating rather than a true shock.
Tennessee Soccer Stats (TSSE) is a personal, independent project and is not affiliated with the TSSAA or any school. ELO win probability is computed from the two teams' ratings entering the game; classifications are the current-cycle tier and may differ from a team's class in older seasons. Division I and Division II are never compared by classification.