Tennessee Soccer Stats
Team Analytics · Strength of Schedule

The Gauntlet

Two teams go 16-2. One of them spent its spring in a meat grinder; the other beat up on its neighbors. The record cannot tell you which is which, but the schedule can. This report measures the road every team actually walked, for every season since 2008: the average strength of the opponents on the other side of the whistle, ranked against everyone else who played that year.

The short answer

Champions play gauntlets. It is not close. Half the state, by definition, plays a bottom-half schedule; the teams that lift trophies almost never come from it.

median schedule percentile of a 25-26 boys state champion
same, girls champions
50th
the median team's schedule, by definition
hardest boys schedule of 25-26
How it's measured

A team's strength of schedule is the average rating of every opponent it faced, taken at the moment each match was played, friendlies and finals alike. Raw averages are hard to compare across seasons, so everything here is a percentile within that season: a 96th-percentile schedule was harder than 96 percent of the schedules played in the state that year. Out-of-state opponents count; the engine rates them too. Every team page on this site now carries its own season-by-season version of this number, next to the record and how the season ended.

The hardest roads of 25-26

What a champion's schedule looks like

Here is every 25-26 state champion with the schedule it played. Read the right column: almost all of them chose the hard road, and the ones that did not are the interesting exceptions.

The soft-schedule watch list

The other direction matters just as much. These are the teams in the current top 25 with the lightest schedules, the ones whose rating was built on the thinnest evidence. This is not an accusation; some of them may be every bit as good as their number. It is a flag: when the rating and the eye test fight about one of these teams, the schedule is usually why. (Long-time readers will recognize South-Doyle.)

McCallie, Grace, and an honest correction

This site has spent two reports on the boys 25-26 argument: unbeaten Grace Christian rated above a McCallie side that took its losses against monsters. The assumption underneath, ours included, was that Grace's schedule was soft. The number says otherwise: McCallie's schedule landed in the 96th percentile, and Grace Christian's landed in the 91st. Both played gauntlets. The gap between them is real, and at the very top five percentiles are a real difference in class, but it is a far smaller gap than the eye test assumed. The schedule argument against Grace was mostly wrong, and the rating that put them third looks better for it.

The all-time gauntlets

The ten hardest schedules any Tennessee team has played since 2008, both sports. Notice what they have in common: almost every one belongs to a private-division team, because the D2 leagues force the big fish to play each other twice a year, and notice how many of these seasons still ended in a trophy.

The verdict

The schedule is half the story of any record. Champions' schedules sit around the 90th percentile while the average team sits at the 50th; a title run through a soft slate is nearly a contradiction in terms.

It is now on every team page. Season by season: the record, the schedule percentile, and how the year ended, from the regional rounds to the state final.

And it will matter more in the fall. When the girls season goes live in August, the schedule strength updates weekly, which means "who have they actually played" becomes a question this site can answer in real time.

Related
Strength of schedule is the mean TSSE (v2.1) rating of a team's opponents at the time each match was played, all competitions included. Percentiles are computed within each season and sex among teams with at least six recorded matches; 9,925 team-seasons qualify since 2008. Finishes come from the site's TSSAA tournament registry tags (regional rounds through the state final); a blank finish means the team's run ended before the tagged rounds or no postseason record exists. Champions are teams whose tagged state final ended in a win. Tennessee Soccer Stats is a personal, independent project, not affiliated with the TSSAA or any school.